Pandemic could force drastic public transit cuts across US, officials warn

WASHINGTON (SBG) — Public transit systems throughout the United States are weighing severe service cuts as they grapple with dramatic drops in revenue and ridership due to the coronavirus pandemic, and experts warn the fallout from those changes could be felt across the economy unless Congress provides new stimulus funds.

Paul Wiedefeld, general manager of the Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Area Transit Authority, unveiled a fiscal year 2022 budget proposal Monday that would end all weekend rail service in the nation’s capital and cut weekday service back to one train every half-hour. It would also shut down 19 rail stations throughout the system and move station closing times up from 11 p.m. to 9 p.m.

The plan would cut down the number of bus routes in the city by about one-third, but the remaining routes would be made longer. Overall, bus service would be reduced to about half of pre-pandemic levels, although more buses would be added on weekends to compensate for lost rail service.

Wiedefeld also expects 2,400 transit workers would be laid off, in addition to 1,400 who are already being eliminated. D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser called the budget proposal “deeply troubling” and emphasized the need for federal stimulus to preserve the city’s way of life and revive the economy.

“Not too long ago with our partners in the region and our federal government, we put Metro on the right track to meet the needs of residents and visitors alike. Regardless of party or ideology, we must once again come together to save Metro,” Bowser said in a statement.

With weekday rail ridership down 85% and bus ridership at less than half of pre-pandemic levels, the D.C. transit system is currently facing a budget deficit of about $500 million. Even if ridership improves in the coming year, officials expect revenues to fall hundreds of millions of dollars short of previous projections.

“This is horrifying. And it will happen everywhere if Congress fails to pass emergency funding for transit,” warned advocacy group Transportation for America.

Similar existential crises are already emerging for transit agencies elsewhere. Ridership cratered when nonessential businesses in many cities were forced to close in the spring and transit use remains low amid fears of transmission of the coronavirus, leading to difficult decisions as officials attempt to budget for the future.

New York City’s Metropolitan Transit Authority recently released a similarly dire plan for service cuts if it does not receive a $12 billion bailout from the federal government to help cover a projected $16 billion budget deficit over the next three years. The agency’s so-called “doomsday” budget includes cuts of up to 40% in bus and rail service and 50% for commuter rail lines, as well as 9,000 layoffs.

“This would absolutely be an end to the New York way of life,” Andrew Albert, the non-voting rider advocate on the MTA board, told The New York Daily News.

Philadelphia’s transit agency is projecting a $350 million budget shortfall for the current fiscal year and is currently losing about $1 million a day in revenue. Officials have warned of fare increases, service cuts, and station closures if the fiscal outlook does not improve.

The challenges extend beyond major cities. In Champaign-Urbana, Ill., bus ridership has plummeted by 75% with few students commuting around the University of Illinois campus, and the city transit agency recently announced it would cut service to about 40% of normal levels through at least June.

Despite having fewer riders, transit agencies have incurred additional costs to sanitize vehicles and provide protective equipment for workers. Officials in many communities have so far attempted to minimize service cuts and layoffs, but their resources are wearing thin.

“Their revenues are down, their expenses are up, so they are in deep trouble,” said Eugenie Birch, co-director of the Penn Institute for Urban Research.

Transit agencies are already maxing out the assistance they can draw from state and local governments that are facing their own budget deficits. Many systems rely on sales tax revenue, and sluggish economic activity has limited those funds. That leaves few options besides appealing to the federal government.

“I don’t know where else the money would come from,” said Bill Fulton, director of the Kinder Institute for Urban Research at Rice University and former mayor of Ventura, Calif.

The CARES Act approved by Congress in March included $25 billion for transit agencies, but those funds were distributed within days. House Democrats passed the $3 trillion HEROES Act in May, which included nearly $16 billion for transit. A revised version of that bill introduced in the House in September would provide $32 billion, but Senate Republicans have refused to consider either package.

An analysis by TransitCenter found the distribution formula for CARES Act funds provided disproportionate benefits for transit systems in different parts of the country. For the 10 regions with the largest transit ridership, relief funds covered budget shortfalls for an average of 5.4 to 8.3 months, but in the rest of the country, the funds will last from 12 to 20 months, on average.

A bipartisan group of senators introduced a framework for a new $900 billion stimulus package Tuesday that offers $45 billion for transportation, though that would include airlines, airports, Amtrak, and transit systems. That effort does not yet have support from leadership in either party or the White House.

President-elect Joe Biden has planned a major push for a new stimulus bill once he takes office in January, but Republicans remain reluctant to bail out state and local governments whose budgets have been decimated by the crisis. Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., told reporters Tuesday additional aid to states would be a “non-starter” for many Republicans, endangering prospects for public transit relief.

A postelection survey conducted by Heart+Mind Strategies for the American Public Transportation Association found 77% of American voters support Congress providing emergency funding for public transportation. The poll also found nearly three-quarters of voters support broader action to improve public transportation infrastructure in the next Congress.

“The public transportation industry continues to serve essential employees every day, but without additional emergency funding, many transit agencies will need to make draconian cuts to transit services and routes and furlough transit workers, leaving our communities without service and jobs when they need them most,” said APTA President and CEO Paul Skoutelas in a statement.

According to the association, about 60% of the nation’s public transit systems project they will need to reduce services and cut employees if they do not receive additional federal funding. Nearly one-third of transit-related businesses are concerned they might have to shut down if no further assistance is provided.

“Unless there is some kind of bailout for transit agencies in the immediate interim, it will be very difficult to offer up even a skeletal schedule,” said P.S. Sriraj, director of the Urban Transportation Center at the University of Illinois at Chicago.

According to Pew Research Center data, workers who are Black, Hispanic, low-income, or immigrants are most likely to rely on public transportation. Economist Ramya Vijaya has found that 20% of the poorest households in the U.S. do not own a vehicle, including one-third of low-income Black households.

The pandemic has highlighted inequities in public transit use, with millions of lower-wage essential workers trudging to hospitals, grocery stores, and factories on half-empty buses while white-collar workers Zoomed to office meetings from home. Rider surveys show 67% of essential workers who rely on public transit are people of color.

“All these people we consider essential workers, many of them are dependent on public transit, especially buses... A significant permanent cutback in public transit in large cities is going to create a ripple effect that is going to have a significant impact on the economy,” Fulton said.

The most immediate consequences would be higher expenses and logistical challenges for those who have no easy or affordable alternative to public transportation.

“The commuting community that are dependent on these services will find great hardship,” Birch said.

The ramifications of drastic service cuts would be multidimensional and far-reaching, though, and commuters might not be the only ones who feel the effects. Public transit alleviates congestion on roads, increases property values and economic development potential in neighborhoods near stations, and connects suburban communities with urban centers.

“Transit is very essential, whether people use it or not,” Sriraj said.

Promising results from early vaccine trials have spurred hope that immunizations could begin within weeks, but it could be several more months before Americans can resume some semblance of a normal life. Even then, many might be reluctant to return to public transportation, if they are going back to the office at all.

APTA research found 67% of transit users were extremely or very concerned about contracting the virus and bringing it home, but nearly 90% of riders reported having a fair, good, or excellent experience when they used public transit during the pandemic. Still, most respondents said they would wait and see what happens with the spread of the virus before resuming their regular travel habits.

A recent survey conducted for the city of Boston found close to 40% of area commuters plan to drive to work alone after the pandemic, up from only 23% who drove before. Only about half of those who regularly rode the subway plan to resume, and 80% of respondents wanted to spend more time working from home.

“For people who have a choice, I think it’s going to be a while,” Fulton said.

A slow return to work has already hindered the economic recovery in areas where stores and restaurants depend heavily on commuters. According to The Wall Street Journal, data from security firm Kastle Systems suggests only about 25% of employees have returned to work in the nation’s largest cities.

Birch stressed distribution of vaccines to 300 million Americans will be an arduous process, and healthy commuters are likely to be low on the list of priorities for state health officials. Reaching a point where riders would feel safe getting on a bus or train again will take time.

“I’m guessing maybe this time next year,” she said when asked how soon ridership might return to pre-coronavirus levels.

According to Sriraj, the pandemic has exacerbated existing strains on public transportation systems driven by growing competition. Many commuters were already gravitating toward rideshare services, bikes, and scooters, and the latest complications might hasten a paradigm shift for the industry that was already on the horizon.

“In my opinion, public transit is at a crossroads, if you will,” he said.

Once service cuts and layoffs begin, experts caution they could prove difficult to roll back. Finding enough well-trained drivers and technicians can be challenging under normal circumstances, and convincing politicians to increase budgets to restore services would not be easy even if the economy improves.

“The concern is there will be a spiral downward, that the agencies will cutback service significantly, that will reduce ridership, that will lead to further service cuts, and on and on,” Fulton said.